On Monday, the President’s Council of Advisors on Science and Technology (PCAST) released its report on H1N1 flu (aka “swine flu”).  According to the press release, “The report concludes that the 2009-H1N1 flu is unlikely to resemble the deadly flu pandemic of 1918-19. But in contrast to the benign version of swine flu that emerged in 1976, the report says the current strain ‘poses a serious health threat’ to the nation. The issue is not that the virus is more deadly than other flu strains, but rather that it is likely to infect more people than usual because it is a new strain against which few people have immunity. This could mean that doctors’ offices and hospitals may get filled to capacity.”

The report goes on to say, “While the precise impact of the fall resurgence of 2009-H1N1 influenza is impossible to predict, a plausible scenario [a possibility, not a prediction] is that the epidemic could:

  • Produce infection of 30–50% of the U.S. population this fall and winter, with symptoms in approximately 20–40% of the population (60–120 million people), more than half of whom would seek medical attention.
  • Lead to as many as 1.8 million U.S. hospital admissions during the epidemic, with up to 300,000 patients requiring care in intensive care units (ICUs). Importantly, these very ill patients could occupy 50–100 percent of all ICU beds in affected regions of the country at the peak of the epidemic and could place enormous stress on ICU units, which normally operate close to capacity.
  • Cause between 30,000 and 90,000 deaths in the United States concentrated among chil­dren and young adults. In contrast, the 30,000–40,000 annual deaths typically associated with seasonal flu in the United States occur mainly among people over 65. As a result, 2009-H1N1 would lead to many more years of life lost.
  • Pose especially high risks for individuals with certain pre-existing conditions, including pregnant women and patients with neurological disorders or respiratory impairment, diabetes, or severe obesity and possibly for certain populations, such as Native Americans.

I’ve written about H1N1 flu several times this year, including a posting back in June about swine flu and the readiness of healthcare supply chains.  My recommendation is similar to the one the PCAST report makes:

“While the features of 2009-H1N1’s next wave cannot be accurately predicted, history teaches us that the most effective responses will be achieved by advanced planning, knowledgeable judgments about the range of possible events, continued situational awareness about the pandemic, and flexibility in thinking and decision making.”

In short: conduct come scenario planning.  What if several of your warehouse employees or drivers get sick with H1N1?  How will you communicate and manage the issue so that vast numbers of employees don’t call in sick out of fear, thus impacting your logistics operations?  If travel restrictions are implemented, how will this affect your supply chain activities?  Could government actions, such as transit shutdowns and quarantines, both here and in other countries, result in supply disruptions?  If your customers include schools and hospitals, how would school closings and a spike in hospital admissions affect your supply chain operations? And so on.

In my opinion, the biggest threat to supply chains is not the H1N1 flu itself, but our collective response to it.  Or in the immortal words of FDR: “The only thing we have to fear is fear itself.”

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