The economy dominated the news this week, as did a flight attendant who escaped from his job in style.

The 0.2 percent increase in the Freight Transportation Services Index (TSI) in June follows a 0.4 percent decline in May (and a 0.3 percent increase in April and a 3.1 percent decline in March). Up and down, up and down. As the table below shows, the June index is up 4.1 percent compared to June 2009, but it is still below June levels going back to 2001.

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As we’ve highlighted the past few weeks, many carriers and 3PLs have reported positive financial results this quarter, and their general outlook for the remainder of the year is cautiously optimistic. On the flip side, a series of negative economic news this week sent the stock markets tumbling. Is the economy recovering or are we headed toward a “double-dip” recession? That is the question no one can really answer with any certainty. John Chambers, Cisco’s CEO, summarized it best in a conference call with investors this week:

“We are seeing a large number of mixed signals in both the market and from our customers’ expectations, and we think the words ‘unusual uncertainty’ are an accurate description of what is occurring.”

Cisco’s stock plunged 8 percent after Chambers’ remarks.

The Wall Street Journal article “Firms Spend More—Warily” suggests that perhaps some (most?) of the economic recovery so far this year is indeed a head fake—i.e., a spike in purchases to get back to zero, not in response to a growth in demand or for business expansion. According to the article:

Companies in the U.S. are stepping up purchases of equipment and software at the fastest pace since the late 1990s. But much of the spending is aimed at replacing older equipment after recession-related postponements or to improve efficiency—not to raise production or boost hiring.

“Businesses invest when there’s demand,” said International Paper Chief Executive John Faraci. “There’s not going to be any [U.S.] capacity expansion, or for that matter job creation, until you see an increase in demand.”

So, what are the implications of all this for supply chain and logistics professionals?

First, it’s important to maintain a long-term perspective. In this age of around-the-clock news, with so many conflicting data points and opinions coming at you, the biggest mistake you can make is to become too reactionary, changing course every time a data point changes. Yes, staying informed of economic trends is important, as is making necessary adjustments to near-term plans and tactics, but not at the expense of your long-term strategy. If the economic winds are truly shifting, adjust your sails not your destination—assuming, of course, you know where you’re heading and you’re confident it’s the right destination.

Second, if you believe that “unusual uncertainty” is here to stay, then you need to focus and invest in areas such as Business Intelligence and Analytics, Sales & Operations Planning, and Risk Management that will allow you to manage your supply chains more effectively in this new environment. And if it still takes you twelve months and an army of IT engineers and consultants to change a business process or enable a new one, then it’s time to upgrade your IT infrastructure too.

Or, you can just grab a beer, engage the emergency escape chute, and slide away.

Which reminds me, Logistics Viewpoints is going on hiatus through August 30th. After almost 8 months of continuous posts, it’s time to take a break and recharge the batteries. If you can’t go that long without your daily LV fix, you should seek medical help. Or you can catch some reruns. Here are some of the most popular postings from the past year:

Have a great weekend!

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