Demand Forecasting in an Inflationary, Supply-Constrained, Semi-Post-Pandemic Environment
Here we are just two years after the COVID-19 outbreak, in another highly unusual market context. Many of us are developing demand forecasts in this dynamic environment of post-pandemic demand shifts, inflationary pressures, supply shortages, rising interest rates, and a potential economic downturn. These current factors, in addition to the atypical activity of the recent past (whipsaw demand pattern), render time-series trends less relevant than in more stable environments. So, what methods can we apply to better gauge future trends? n a recent CNBC interview Ben Bernanke noted that the Federal Reserve likely looked at the unemployment rate and total employment in early 2021 and incorrectly inferred [...]
