If “the forecast is always wrong,” is improving forecast accuracy even the solution to our demand planning woes? In times that continue to defy our ability to predict them, the words of famous statistician George Box have never been more right: “All models are wrong, but some are useful.” So what can we do to […]
Is the recently stated supply glut at retailers such as Target and Walmart due to the Bullwhip Effect? What goods are experiencing less demand than ancticipated? What effect is this having on retailers’ business? And why factors caused this seemingly sudden inventory glut in a period of supply shortages? Finally, what does this indicate for inflation and future demand?
Here we are just two years after the COVID-19 outbreak, in another highly unusual market context. Many of us are developing demand forecasts in this dynamic environment of post-pandemic demand shifts, inflationary pressures, supply shortages, rising interest rates, and a potential economic downturn. These current factors, in addition to the atypical activity of the recent past (whipsaw demand pattern), render time-series trends less relevant than in more stable environments. So, what methods can we apply to better gauge future trends? n a recent CNBC interview Ben Bernanke noted that the Federal Reserve likely looked at the unemployment rate and total employment in early 2021 and incorrectly inferred […]
Note: Today’s post is part of our “Editor’s Choice” series where we highlight recent posts published by our sponsors that provide supply chain insights and advice. Today’s article is from Kinaxis and explores the TikTok Effect. Or, why you need demand planning for going viral on social media. Overnight, millions of people are clamoring for […]
When companies implement a demand management or replenishment system, the goal is usually to improve customer satisfaction while holding less inventory. Pinnacle Propane implemented demand management, replenishment, and order promising solutions from John Galt Solutions with the goal of improving service – reducing what they call “out of gases” – while reducing transportation costs. The […]
Two adjectives that often describe the most successful supply chains are adaptive and resilient. An adaptive supply chain is one that is able to respond quickly to changes and disruption, and the ensuing changes to demand. A resilient supply chain is able to recover quickly from these disruptions. These terms perfectly describe the Asian Paints […]
Indirect sales, brand owner sales through sites like Walmart.com or Amazon, are an increasingly large portion of sales for many companies. In 2020, ecommerce sales accounted for 14 percent of total retail sales in the US. But of ecommerce sales, 86% come from indirect channels, rather than a company’s own website, according to CommerceIQ. For […]