Here we are just two years after the COVID-19 outbreak, in another highly unusual market context. Many of us are developing demand forecasts in this dynamic environment of post-pandemic demand shifts, inflationary pressures, supply shortages, rising interest rates, and a potential economic downturn. These current factors, in addition to the atypical activity of the recent past (whipsaw demand pattern), render time-series trends less relevant than in more stable environments. So, what methods can we apply to better gauge future trends? n a recent CNBC interview Ben Bernanke noted that the Federal Reserve likely looked at the unemployment rate and total employment in early 2021 and incorrectly inferred […]
Every few weeks I read a particularly well written and researched article on COVID. An article from the BBC – called Coronavirus: How scared should we be? – is the most insightful from the last month or so. The author, Nick Triggle, writes “There are two factors that influence the risk we face from coronavirus […]
Because of social distancing, and the requirement for most Americans to stay home, we will have far fewer deaths from COVID-19. But our economy is also now in recession. Are the benefits from lives saved worth the costs in terms of jobs lost and the economy shrinking? Cost-benefit models say this was the right tradeoff.
The current coronavirus outbreak is an example of an economic shock that elevates uncertainty and complicates forecasting. ARC European analysts Florian Güldner and David Humphrey conducted a thorough scenario analysis on the potential impact of the corona virus on automation markets and supply chains. This analysis provides a useful framework for…
While speaking with a number of WMS product managers, I began to notice that machine learning was called out as a focal point for WMS product development efforts. In general, machine learning is a hot topic in the world of supply chain technologies. Just last week, Chris Cunnane wrote about machine learning for transportation execution. […]
US GDP grew at about a 2 percent annual growth rate in the first half of the year. The logistics and warehousing industry grew at a tepid rate in the first quarter. But this is positive when compared with the Q1 performance of recent years when the industry actually contracted, likely due to atypical seasonality. According to US Census data, US exports in the first half of 2017 totaled $763.6 billion, representing a 7.3 percent increase over the total for the first half of 2016. According to US Census data, US exports in the first half of 2017 totaled $763.6 billion, representing a 7.3 percent increase over the total for the first half of 2016.
Earlier this month I wrote an article about the changing warehouse order profile. That article presented data and discussed findings from ARC Advisory Group’s warehouse practitioner survey conducted in partnership with DC Velocity earlier this year. The overarching theme of the findings is that the ongoing transformation in the fulfillment environment is quickly shifting order profiles and […]