Archive for Global Trade

How Importers Can Prepare for Uncertainty in Global Trade

Tariffs and duties and data – oh my. The need for digitization grows as importers struggle to mitigate the impact of shifting trade policy, demand fluctuations, compliance risks, and duty exposure. In an uncertain international trade environment, “trade war” has become a buzzword sending importers into a frenzy on how to prepare their supply chains for the unknown and mitigate risk to their forecast. Proposed tariffs, retaliatory trade restrictions, or even temporary reductions on tariffs […]

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Let’s Talk Import Tariffs, Expectations, and Empirical Evidence

Import tariffs and potential trade wars have been a hot topic in the media since Trump was elected President. My colleagues and I have written about the topic a number of times on Logistics Viewpoints, as well. However, much of the news propagates recent announcements and often includes an opinion on the subject matter. I thought it would be helpful to take an empirical look at import data surrounding tariff announcements and implementations to determine […]

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Trade Tariffs and Trump (Again)

Last week President Trump announced that the US will impose tariffs of 25 percent on imported steel and 10 percent on imported aluminum. Last year I disclosed in a Logistics Viewpoints article that I see the Trump administration’s trade proposals as posturing and rhetoric to set up future negotiations to leverage the US’s economic clout in an effort to extract trade benefits on the margin. I did not see a trade war resulting at that […]

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Beating Mother Nature’s Stormy Character

Although it’s a fresh, new year, many global companies and their supply chains in the US have been suffering alongside individuals this winter. Icy, wintry winds and driving snow jammed air traffic and roads in the east, while fires swept across the west, then rains turned major highways into muddy messes with flash floods. All throughout 2017, Mother Nature didn’t pause to worry about the delays and problems she created for shippers all over the […]

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GTM Research Update: Merchandise Trade Analysis

In March I provided a brief overview of the global trade management (GTM) solutions market and discussed some of the factors that encourage companies to invest in these solutions. There are a few “independent variables” that can explain GTM sales. Among them are regulation and compliance complexity, regulatory fine risks, supply chain complexity, and tariff costs. Public policy is a major determinant of trade tariffs and regulatory compliance risks. However, trade volumes affect total tariff […]

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Global Trade Management in Today’s Contentious Political Environment

The political environment and public policy decisions are central determinants of global trade patterns. But political risk seems especially heightened in today’s international business environment. From the Brexit vote, to Trump’s trade renegotiation rhetoric, to Marine Le Pen’s promise of intelligent protectionism, there has been an undeniable trend of political intent to reexamine trade policies and free trade agreements. I am in the process of updating ARC’s Global Trade Management (GTM) market study and have […]

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Trump, Trade, Transportation, and the Protectionist’s Dilemma

Richard Peretz, UPS CFO, was on CNBC yesterday morning discussing the company’s most recent earnings release. The interview addressed a number of prominent topics in the logistics world. First of all, he noted the ongoing increase in B-to-C as a percentage of UPS’ overall business, and as we have stated repeatedly on Logistics Viewpoints, this is driven by the boom in e-commerce. Secondly, he noted the company’s ongoing investment in the automation of its US […]

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In Defense of Global Trade

Logically enough, the majority of Logistics Viewpoints (LV) readers work in the logistics field. And LV is a logistics industry blog, not a political op-ed site. However, I believe the issue of global trade is both a core logistics topic and a hot political one. Furthermore, the presidential candidates from both major parties have been denouncing international trade as of late. I actually believe both candidates are supporters of free trade, whether it be domestic or international. […]

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What’s Happening to Global Trade?

What is happening to global trade? You may ask, “What do you mean?” Well, I think a quote from a World Trade Organization (WTO) September press release describes the situation the best: “If current projections are realised, 2015 will mark the fourth consecutive year in which annual trade growth has fallen below 3 per cent and the fourth year where trade has grown at roughly the same rate as world GDP, rather than twice as […]

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New Year, New Economic Bloc – the AEC

Ring out the old, ring in the new, so the saying goes. Indeed, because while 2015 was fading out this last December 31, the new ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) was being born. But if you live much beyond the shores of Southeast Asia it is likely news of this particular birth passed you by. So let me explain, because this region of 632 million people and combined GDP of $2.5 trillion is set to become an […]

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